The high school phenom with Major League pedigree who's brother made the big leagues as a teenager and a dad who was a multi-time All-Star? Or a center field prospect who will remind everyone of Aaron Judge in both stature and play?

That’s the question the team who wins the MLB Draft Lottery must ask after the 2025 MLB  Draft Lottery at 5:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 10. 

Ethan Holliday, the younger brother of Jackson Holliday and son of Matt Holliday, has been the top prospect in this draft for years and has been the expected No. 1 pick since before last season. 

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But that was before Jace LaViolette nearly won the national championship for Texas A&M. Baseball America moved him to No. 1 on their prospect board after the 6-foot-6, 230 pound left-handed center fielder hit .305/.449/.726 with 29 homer runs and 78 RBI in 2024. 

That’s the backdrop of both the 2025 MLB Draft and the first FloBaseball composite prospect rankings. 

The MLB Draft Lottery takes place at the MLB Winter Meetings and the second day of the annual gathering will include the lottery. Here are a few things to know. 

The 2025 MLB Draft Is Deep In High School Prospects

Last year the projected top 10 of the draft was filled with mostly college prospects, but this year half of the FloBaseball composite rankings' Top 10 players are high school prospects, including Holliday who is MLB pipeline’s No. 1 prospect. 

Holliday is tied at the top of our rankings, but we give the edge to LaViolette as the best prospect. 

The 2024 Draft saw just one prep player go in the top 10, Konnor Griffin. That shouldn’t be the case this season with the 6-foot-4 Holliday on the board along with Seth Hernandez, Xavier Neyens and Kruz Schoolcraft. 

Cam Cannarella Of Clemson Baseball Is A Prospect To Watch

Cannarella entered 2024 as the top college prospect in this draft class via Baseball America, but after playing through a torn labrum as a sophomore following his head-turning freshman season, the outfielder has tumbled some. He’s No. 10 in the FloBaseball rankings, but is No. 15 at MLB and No. 6 at Baseball America. He hit .337/ .417/ .561 in 2024 with 11 home runs, and if repeats that, he may re-enter the top three of the draft. 

Colorado Rockies And The Miami Marlins Have The Best Chance To Win The No. 1 Pick

The Rockies (.377 winning percentage) winning the No. 1 pick would be poetic and a great story as they drafted Matt Holliday in the seventh round in 1998. He debuted for the Rockies in 2004 and helped lead the Rockies to the 2007 World Series while winning the NLCS MVP. The Rockies traded him before the 2009 season, but Holliday was a three-time All-Star, three-time Silver Slugger and the 2007 Batting Champion with the Rockies. 

So it would make for a solid narrative for the Rockies to draft Ethan Holliday No. 1, especially since the Rockies are in the middle of a long rebuild that doesn’t look all that close to being over. 

Miami was slightly better than the Rockies last season with a .383 winning percentage and are appearing to be entering a teardown and rebuild period. 

It's Not A Sure Thing For The Colorado Rockies Or Marlins To Win

The Nationals, Athletics and Pirates all had the best odds to win the No. 1 pick of the 2023 MLB Draft. The Pirates did win it, but the A's fell to No. 6 and the Nationals No. 2. 

Last year though is the real head-turner. 

The A's, Rockies and Royals had the best chance to win it, and the Nationals actually won it. But because the rules (see below), the Nats weren't eligible to get the pick and had to settle for the 10th pick. The Cleveland Guardians and the Cincinnati Reds had a .02% chance to win the top two picks and did just that. 

So far through two lotteries, six teams had the best chances to win the picks and only one has done it. 

Who Can't Win The MLB Draft Lottery?

The Chicago White Sox and the Athletics can't win the No. 1 pick or even a top 10 pick despite both teama being among the worst in baseball last season. The White Sox were obviously the worst team in baseball with a .253 winning percentage and a historically long losing streak. Because the White Sox are a large market club that pays into the revenue sharing and had a lottery pick the previous season, they aren't eligible for the lottery. 

Because the A's (who are playing in Sacramento for a few years before moving to Las Vegas) receive revenue sharing and have had three lottery picks in the row, they are ineligible for a pick higher than 10th and 11th in the draft despite the fifth best odds with a .426 winning percentage. 

Will Someone Trade A Compensation Pick?

Last year the Baltimore Orioles traded a Comp A pick in the Corbin Burnes deal with the Brewers. Milwaukee took Blake Burke of Tennessee with the pick. 

Could it happen again? Take a look at the comp picks this year. 

2025 MLB Competitive Balance Picks

Round A

• Brewers
• Tigers
• Mariners
• Twins
• Rays
• Reds
• Athletics
• Marlins

Round B

• Guardians
• Orioles
• D-backs
• Royals
• Cardinals
• Pirates
• Rockies

These picks can be traded and if there was one team to keep an eye it would be the Cincinnati Reds, who have the sixth the comp pick, which should be the No. 36 pick in the draft. The Reds are in a competitive window and after a disappointing 2024 season, hired Terry Francona as the manager and gave Nick Martinez a $21 million qualifying offer that he accepted. They traded for another pitcher in Brady Singer and are in rumors for Garrett Crochet and even with Guardians for Lane Thomas and Josh Naylor. Adding a comp pick could sweeten a deal. 

The Mariners also make sense as a team who would be willing to trade a draft pick as Seattle is hoping to add offense after a similarly disappointing season that started with World Series expectations. The Mariners, who need more offense, keep having their deep pitching staff be included in trade rumors, but the team hasn't done it two years or rumors

Will There Be Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks?

No. 

The two rookie of the year winners, Paul Skenes and Luis Gil do not qualify for PIP picks. This is the first year since it started in 2022 that a team didn’t earn a pick. 

An MLB club can earn a draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.

One year of service requires 172 days on an active roster, which means:

• Players with little or no MLB service time need to break camp with the team or be called up within two weeks of Opening Day. Then they must spend all or most of the year in the big leagues. Then they must either win their league’s Rookie of the Year award, or place in the top three for MVP or Cy Young.
• Players who made an Opening Day roster and accrued the service time but didn’t factor in any awards that year retain PPI eligibility. They need to place in the top three for MVP or Cy Young before hitting arbitration. That typically allows for a three-year window.

When Is The MLB Draft Lottery?

The lottery is at 5:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 10. 

How To Watch The MLB Draft Lottery?

The Lottery will be on MLB Network. 

Who Has The Best MLB Draft Lottery Odds? 

The Colorado Rockies have the best odds to win the top pick a year after they had the third pick last season. 

• 22.45 percent -- Rockies (.377)
• 22.45 -- Marlins (.383)
• 17.96 -- Angels (.389)
• 10.20 -- Nationals (.438)
• 7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)
• 5.31 -- Pirates (.469)
• 3.67 -- Reds (.475)
• 2.45 -- Rangers (.481)
• 1.90 -- Giants (.494)
• 1.50 -- Rays (.494)
• 1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)
• 1.09 -- Twins (.506)
• 0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)
• 0.68 -- Cubs (.512)
• 0.53 -- Mariners (.525)
• 0.27 -- D-backs (.549)
• 0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)
• 0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)

When Is The 2025 MLB Draft?

The 2025 MLB Draft will take place from July 13-15 in Atlanta during the MLB All-Star Week. 

When Does The 2025 College Baseball Season Start?

The season starts on Valentines Day on Feb. 14 and College Baseball Opening Day will be highlight by the first of three weekends of the College Baseball Showdown in Arlington. 

Who Are The Top MLB Draft 2025 Prospects?

The conversation for No. 1 will likely be between Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette. Holliday is the brother of former No. 1 pick Jackson Holliday and the son of former MLB star Matt Holliday. He is committed to the Oklahoma State Baseball program, where his uncle is the head coach. 

LaViolette is the star of the Texas A&M Baseball team who briefly entered the transfer portal after a coaching change before deciding to return to College Station. 

When Is The 2025 College Baseball Showdown?

The 2025 Shriner's College Baseball Showdown is Feb. 14 to Feb. 16 While the College Baseball Series is Feb. 21-23 and again from Fev, 28- March 2. 

Here's the schedule, all time Central: 

Shriners Children’s College Showdown Schedule | Feb. 14-16, 2025

Friday, February 14

• 11 a.m. – Oklahoma State vs. Clemson
• 3 p.m. – Arizona vs. Ole Miss
• 7 p.m. – Texas vs. Louisville

Saturday, February 15

• 11 a.m. – Clemson vs. Arizona
• 3 p.m. – Louisville vs. Oklahoma State
• 7 p.m. – Ole Miss vs. Texas

Sunday, February 16

• 10:30 a.m. – Louisville vs. Arizona
• 2:30 p.m. – Ole Miss vs. Clemson
• 6:30 p.m. – Oklahoma State vs. Texas

College Baseball Series Schedule | Feb. 21-23, 2025

Friday, February 21

• 3 p.m. – TCU vs. Michigan
• 7 p.m. – Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Saturday, February 22

• 2 p.m. – Michigan vs. Kansas State
• 6 p.m. – Arkansas vs. TCU

Sunday, February 23

• 11 a.m. – Michigan vs. Arkansas
• 3 p.m. – Kansas State vs. TCU

College Baseball Series Schedule | Feb. 28-March 2, 2025

Friday, February 28

• 3 p.m. – Auburn vs. Ohio State
• 7 p.m. – Baylor vs. Oregon State

Saturday, March 1

• 2 p.m. – Ohio State vs. Baylor
• 6 p.m. – Oregon State vs. Auburn

Sunday, March 2

• 11 a.m. – Ohio State vs. Oregon State
• 3 p.m. – Auburn vs. Baylor

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