Charlie Condon must really like summers on Lake Erie, perigois and letting everyone know that Lebron James is better than Michael Jordan, because no draft eligible player played like they wanted to be in Cleveland more than him. 

The Georgia slugger not only led college baseball in home runs this season, but he also hit .443 and slugged 1.043. Of his 93 hits in 54 games and 55 were for extra bases. 

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When we started the season, Condon was the No. 5 prospect in the draft. A month later, we moved Condon to the No. 2 pick in our first mock draft based on his performance in the first month. 

Now? It’s hard to envision anyone else going before Condon unless Cleveland doesn’t believe they can afford him.

Or they just think someone is better... more on this coming. 

The money isn’t insignificant. The No. 1 pick comes with an estimated $10,570.600 value. That is the most in the history of the draft. 

Cleveland has a pool of $18,334,000 to spend on draft prospects. 

How Does MLB Draft Slot Values Work?

Slot values for the draft are determined by matching the growth in revenues. This year’s $10,570,600 1-1 slot value is an 8.7% increase from last season. In 2023, two players signed for more than $9 million, the No. 1 and No. 2 picks Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews. 

Just because the value of the pick is what it is, it doesn’t mean the player has to sign for that much. Skenes signed for a record $9.2 million despite the value being $9,721,000 last season. 

There is history of teams not wanting to take a player based on slot value. In 2017, the Minnesota Twins reportedly passed on the top prospect, Hunter Greene, in favor of Royce Lewis because of slot value fears. Greene went No. 2 to the Cincinnati Reds. 

Will The Cleveland Guardians Not Take Charlie Condon In The MLB Draft?

ESPN reporter Kiley McDaniel reported on May 8 that the Guardians are not eying Condon and prefer Travis Bazzana of Oregon State. MLB Pipeline’s latest mock draft on May 16 also has Bazzana going No. 1. 

McDaniel notes that it doesn’t have to do with money. The team just likes Bazzana and Florida star Jac Caglianone at No. 1 more. 

In the first Mock Draft at FloBaseball, we had Cleveland taking the two-way star Caglianone No. 1. 

But then Condon did what he did the rest of the season. And that's saying something because Caglianone was also really, really good. 

Could Cincinnati really, seven years after getting Hunter Greene in the draft, once again land the consensus No. 1 player at No. 2? Maybe… hopefully Condon also likes rivers, chili and stories of Johnny Bench. 

Usually where there's smoke there's fire. I assume the Reds are loving the smoke from Cuyahoga County, Ohio.

Here’s the FloBaseball Mock Draft 2.0 as the NCAA Tournament is set to begin with the selection show on May 27. 

No.1 Cleveland Guardians: Charlie Condon, OF/IF, Georgia Baseball

Last year, Pittsburgh was set to take Dylan Crews almost throughout the entire spring and into the summer. It was seemingly a lock but Skenes just kept dominating and by the time the draft came he has obtained the moniker as the best pitching prospect in years and some say ever. 

Condon isn’t on Skenes’ trajectory, at least it doesn’t seem like it, but it’s hard to think of what else he has to do lock the top spot. 

Cleveland reportedly likes Caglianone and Bazzana more at No. 1. And those players entered the season ranked higher than Condon on prospect lists. 

But we’re going to have Cleveland taking the top prospect here because it does make sense for Cleveland. They need a difference-making offensive player to go with the young pitching. 

But before folks destroy Cleveland if they decide to pass up a prospect who hit the most home runs in college baseball while batting .443, it’s easy to understand why. 

It’s far-fetched to think Condon will do what Skenes has done or Wyatt Langford in terms of his speed to the Majors. And the Guardians probably aren’t desperate like the Angels were last year when they called up their first round pick weeks after the draft.

Perhaps the reason they are looking at Bazzana and Caglianone is because they believe in rookie Kyle Manzardo, who they traded Aaron Civale for in 2023, as the future at first base. They see 2022 first round pick Chase DeLauter as the future in right field. The top four prospects in the organization right now are two outfielders and two first basemen. 

With Steven Kwan, a career .289 hitter since making his debut in 2022 playing left field, it doesn’t seem impossible to think Cleveland would rather want a bonafide infielder.  

Or this is all just contract posturing by the Guardians and Condon is always going to be the pick. 

Perhaps the next mock draft will tell a different story. 

No. 2 Cincinnati Reds: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida Baseball

The No. 2 pick the last two seasons has been a stress-free, breezy world. If Cleveland doesn’t take Charlie Condon No. 1, he’ll be a Cincinnati Red moments later. 

And the Reds and their time frame of contention looks a little different since we last mocked the draft in March. The Reds are not currently competing in the National League Central like predicted. They have not taken the next step and two months into the season, 2024 is a house of horrors for the Redlegs. 

Cincinnati has one of the worst records in baseball, a historically bad record in 1-run games and injuries and a suspension have demolished the team. The Reds are one of the worst hitting teams in the game. First baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand struggled mightily before he got hurt. The 2023 breakout star, Matt McClain, could miss the entire the season, top 30 prospect Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games and yeah, it’s not been great. 

But Elly De La Cruz is awesome and the starting pitching for the Reds has been really good. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Andrew Abbott have all had great seasons.

The Reds could be right back track by the second half of this season and be ready to do more than just compete for the NL Central in 2025.

And Caglianone would be quite the talent to put with this bunch if not by the end of 2025, but certainly by 2026. It just depends on what the Reds would do with his two-way status. Still, he slashed .401/.495/.854 with 23 home runs. He is striking out less this season but still chases pitches, so he may spend more time in the minors. 

And he also still throws in the upper 90s.

I wouldn’t rule the Reds out on Wake Forest pitcher Chase Burns at this spot either. Again, a team like Cincinnati’s best chance to land an ace pitcher is through the draft. So despite having a plethora of young pitchers and 2023 first round pick Rhett Lowder in Double-A, the Reds could continue to stockpile arms. Especially if Cincinnati continues to flounder and find themselves selling players like former All-Star closer Alexis Diaz, or other pieces of the bullpen. 

No. 3 Colorado Rockies Travis Bazzana, IF, Oregon State Baseball

He’s the No. 2 prospect and reports suggest he’s being seriously considered at No. 1 by Cleveland. 

Easy to see why. 

The middle infielder hit .423 with 82 hits, 16 doubles and 26 home runs for the Beavers this season. He has stolen 15 bases (36 in 2023). 

The Sydney, Australia native is athletic enough to envision him transitioning to left field or even center field. 

If the Guardians don’t swerve here and take the best player, Condon, I have a tough time seeing the Reds take another middle infielder with a first round pick. Nick Senzel, Jonathan India, Matt McClain and Cam Collier are all former infelders taken in the first round by the Reds since 2016. And that’s not to say the Reds would care about that. 

They clearly don’t. 

But prospects Sal Stewart, Edwin Arroyo, Carlos Jorge and Ricardo Cabrera are all potential middle infielders and the Reds don’t seem to be too inclined to move De La Cruz, McClain and Marte to the outfield. So Caglianone (and Condon) make more sense. 

The Rockies don’t have that problem. They were bad in 2023. They are bad in 2024. And they need talent in the system. No change here. The Rockies take Bazzana. 

Here’s the Rest Of The MLB Draft Top 10

• 4. Oakland A’s: Chase Burns, Wake Forest, RHP
• 5. Chicago White Sox: Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M OF
• 6. Kansas City Royals: Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest, 1B
• 7. St. Louis Cardinals: Hagen Smith, Arkansas LHP 
• 8. Los Angeles Angels: JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia, IF 
• 9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Trey Yesavage, East Carolina, RHP
• 10. Washington Nationals: Konnor Griffin, IF/OF, Jackson Prep

Notes:

My favorite pick here is the Pittsburgh Pirates taking another pitcher in the top 10. If Kurtz or Wetherholt drops, especially Wetherholt, I’d expect the Pirates to take them at No. 10, but Yesavage has arguably been as good as Burns and Hagen Smith this season. He suffered an incredibly scary injury at the end of the season with a collapsed lung but the Eastern Pa. native could make an exciting future rotation for the Pirates if he continues to develop after this season. He had a 1.59 ERA, 139 strikeouts in 86.0 innings and went 11-1. He pitches between 94 and 97 mph. 

Some scouts believe the pitching in college baseball has not been great this season which has allowed the top prospects like Condon, Bazzana and Caglianone to have the seasons they’ve had. But Yesavage, Smith and Burns have been the best. 

Picks 11-20 In The 2024 MLB Draft

• 11. Detroit Tigers: Caleb Lomavita, California, C
• 12. Boston Red Sox: Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina, OF
• 13. San Francisco Giants: Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake, Calif., SS/RHP
• 14. Chicago Cubs: Seaver King, Wake Forest, IF/OF 
• 15: Seattle Mariners: Cam Smith, Florida State, 3B
• 16: Miami Marlins: Tommy White, LSU, 3B
• 17.  Milwaukee Brewers: James Tibbs III, Florida State 1B/OF
• 18. Tampa Bay Rays: Cam Caminiti, Saguaro, Ariz., LHP
• 19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, Oklahoma State, OF/RHP
• 20. Toronto Blue Jays: William Schmidt, Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, La., RHP

Notes:

The most interesting pick here is the Blue Jays. By the time the draft comes, the Blue Jays could be in complete teardown mode. Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are already being rumored in trade talks as they have not been signed to extensions and the Blue Jays are off to a slow start in a tough division. 

If the Blue Jays decide that they are rebuilding, taking a swing on a high school pitcher doesn’t seem like a bad idea at No. 20. But if they feel like they could sign their stars longterm, perhaps the move is taking a player with the potential to climb through the system quicker. 

Picks 21-30 In the 2024 MLB Draft

• 21. Minnesota Twins: Billy Amick, Tennessee, 3B
• 22. Baltimore Orioles:  Slade Caldwell, Valley View Ark., OF
• 23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Santucci, Duke, LHP
• 24. Atlanta Braves: Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State, SS
• 25. San Diego Padres: Brody Brecht, Iowa, RHP
• 26. New York Yankees: Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State, OF 
• 27. Philadelphia Phillies: Theodore Gillen, Austin Westlake HS, IF 
• 28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, Sam Houston, C 
• 29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Moore, Tennessee, 2B 
• 30. Texas Rangers: Ben Hess, Alabama, RHP

Notes: 

Slade Caldwell moving to No. 22 to the Orioles is because I moved Cam Caminiti to the No. 18 pick. The Orioles would probably still love to take a pitcher and Iowa RHP Brody Brecht, Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci and Tommy White have all been mocked to the Orioles on other publications.

Perhaps Baltimore wants older prospects that can help them sooner since the window, and the service time countdown, is on. But while others knock Caldwell for his lack of size, he seems like the best case scenario is he turns into Corbin Carroll. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brecht or Santucci is the pick here. I originally had the Dodgers taking Caldwell with the next pick. 

When Is The 2024 MLB Draft?

The actual time and date of the MLB Draft hasn't been announced, but it will take place during 2024 MLB All-Star Week. MLB All-Star week begins on Sunday, July 14 and the game is on Tuesday, July 16. 

In 2023, the draft began All-Star week on the Sunday before Tuesday's game between the National League and American League. 

The draft began at 2 p.m. in 2023. 

More MLB Draft 2024 Coverage 

• MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The Cleveland Guardians Take At No. 1?
• MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The Cincinnati Reds Take At No. 2?
• MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The Colorado Rockies Take At No. 3?
• MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The Oakland Athletics Take At No. 4?
• MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The Chicago White Sox Take At No. 5?

MLB Draft 2024 Order

The New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres’ first picks dropped 10 spots because the clubs exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million. 

Here’s the order: 

1. Cleveland Guardians
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Oakland A’s
5. Chicago White Sox
6. Kansas City Royals
7. St. Louis Cardinals 
8. Los Angeles Angels 
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Washington Nationals 
11. Detroit Tigers
12. Boston Red Sox
13. San Francisco Giants
14. Chicago Cubs
15. Seattle Mariners
16. Miami Marlins 
17. Milwaukee Brewers
18. Tampa Bay Rays
19. New York Mets
20. Toronto Blue Jays
21. Minnesota Twins
22. Baltimore Orioles 
23. Los Angeles Dodgers 
24. Atlanta Braves 
25. San Diego Padres 
26. New York Yankees
27. Philadelphia Phillies 
28. Houston Astros 
29. Arizona Diamondbacks 
30. Texas Rangers
31. Arizona Diamondbacks
32. Baltimore Orioles 
33. Minnesota Twins
34. Baltimore Orioles
35. Arizona Diamondbacks
36. Cleveland Guardians
37. Pittsburgh Pirates
38. Colorado Rockies
39. Kansas City Royals

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